“When your views are truly contrarian they are inevitably uncomfortable. Courage and the ability to withstand pain are required.” --Michael Steinhardt

STEADILY SELECT SPLATTERED SECURITIES (March 29, 2020): A useful analogy to a bear market is to imagine that several dozen people carry buckets of brightly-colored paint up to various floors of a skyscraper and then simultaneously pour their buckets onto the street. The buckets which were carried to the highest floors will generally splatter more aggressively than buckets from lower floors but it will be a messy correlation rather than a clean linear pattern. In other words, some of the paint from floors which are not at the very top will end up splattering worse than some of the paint from higher floors due to the unpredictability of nature. The same is true of bear markets: the most overpriced assets will generally suffer but some undervalued assets and others which "shouldn't have" dropped so much will do so anyway. Because most investors aren't accustomed to trading in bear markets, especially now when we haven't experienced such a downtrend for eleven years, most people will be acting from confusion rather than with advanced planning. Even an inferior method is better to acting randomly or using emotions.

The weekly timing of the selling signals that the least-experienced investors are doing the most selling--which is when you should be doing your heaviest buying.

When do ordinary inexperienced investors sell? Definitely not at 11 a.m. on a Wednesday since they're busy working at that time. Most inexperienced people place market sell orders on non-trading days when they have time to do so. We saw this clearly in December 2018 when during the weekend prior to December 24 many investors sold in a panic with their orders being filled at the open that day, which triggered sell stops that led to additional losses. Investors had all of Christmas Day to place more market sell orders which were filled near the open on Wednesday, December 26, 2018 which triggered a final round of stop-loss selling followed by one of the biggest one-day rebounds in history the same day.

Do the opposite of the weekend warriors and follow the Nikkei 225 futures especially on Sunday evenings.

Nearly identical behavior has been occurring in recent weeks when ordinary investors have placed market sell orders during most March weekends which are filled at the open on Monday followed by stop-loss orders being triggered by those lower prices. The market then mostly recovers later in the week, only to experience the same behavior the following weekend. If you look back at the first quarter of 2009 then we had another instance of the same phenomenon. This kind of action has been true for decades. Experienced traders will do extra buying near the opening bell each Monday and on other days following non-trading days (like December 26, 2018) whenever fear is elevated.

Sometimes U.S. futures are trading limit down which makes it impossible to track how the global markets are behaving. Ignore the U.S. futures especially on limit down days and watch the Nikkei 225 futures which don't have limit-down restrictions. On Sunday evening, March 22, 2020, Nikkei 225 futures opened down about 11% and were down only 3% a few hours later, indicating that U.S. stocks would probably open lower but that better times probably were ahead. As I am writing this on Sunday evening we have similar albeit less exaggerated moves as Nikkei futures opened moderately lower and are now slightly positive. The exchanges' suspending trading during volatile moves is idiotic since most investors get especially nervous during trading halts. Some of my lowest purchase prices were achieved from fills which occurred within a few minutes of trading being resumed after an artificial halt.

When many investors and chartists are selling while top executives have been doing their heaviest buying since the last bear-market bottom in March 2009 then you know you should be gradually buying into weakness. Never chase after any recent trend.

Many ordinary investors have been confused by the market's recent plunge and have been either not buying into weakness or actually selling. Technical traders have been hit even harder by repeatedly chasing after short-term trends which usually reverse just after they are "confirmed." Do as the insiders do and gradually purchase whatever is most undervalued using ladders of good-until-canceled orders. Some of the best bargains have existed only for minutes or even for seconds on some especially-volatile trading days, so if you are trying to buy using market orders you are unlikely to succeed in getting the most-favorable prices. The ideal approach is one I use even in calmer markets: place ladders of very small orders of equal-dollar amounts which are spaced equally apart and which go very deep so the market never goes below the lowest rung in your ladder. It is better to buy very tiny amounts at truly compelling prices then to try to magically guess where you will profit from lump-sum trading.

When unusually heavy insider buying is combined with all-time record selling by inexperienced investors then that serves as an even stronger buy signal.

The best time to sell is when we have heavy insider selling combined with intense buying by the least-experienced investors; this is why I was steadily selling near the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020. Now we have an even stronger buy signal due to all-time record selling by the least-experienced participants in the financial markets:

Funds and ETFs Witness Record-Breaking Outflows During the Week

A surprising number of stocks and bonds recently traded at or near multi-decade lows.

Bear markets are notorious for their capriciousness and usually end up erasing a significant percentage of the gains which had been achieved in recent bull markets. When U.S. equity indices had bottomed in early March 2009 they didn't just give up their gains since 2007 or 2006 but fell to 12-1/2-year lows for the S&P 500 which meant their cheapest prices since 1996 without adjusting for inflation. If you adjust for inflation then stocks in early 2009 had returned all the way back to their levels from the mid-1980s. Recently many traded shares fell to prices not seen since the early years of the 21st century or in some cases in a few decades without even adjusting for inflation. This has created compelling buying opportunities for those who have been alert to recent bargains while highlighting that the Boglehead approach of buying no matter how overvalued the stock market is doesn't work in the long run.

Those who bought U.S. stocks in August 1929 lost half of their money in inflation-adjusted terms if they held them for 53 years until August 1982.

There is zero political resistance to endless stimulus and literally printing money as rapidly as possible.

It is almost impossible for those who believe in restraining deficit growth to be seriously considered nowadays since the popular mood is for governments around the world to "do something about" the economic contraction caused partly by the severe restrictions required to fight the spread of coronavirus. The U.S. just passed a two-trillion-dollar stimulus package, the U.S. Fed is taking extraordinary action in other aspects, while governments worldwide are acting similarly even where they have a long history of being more subdued and conservative. This will have profoundly inflationary implications which aren't generally being considered by many investors except for insiders. Top corporate executives have been doing their heaviest buying in many companies which will benefit from rising inflationary expectations and massive global stimulus.

Housing prices have been collapsing but almost no one knows about it unless they are in the industry.

It is pretty clear why homebuilders and those who wish to sell real estate aren't eager to have it widely known that the much-publicized collapse for financial assets around the world has been accompanied by equally dramatic but mostly hidden losses for both residential and commercial real estate. REITs have plummeted but so many sectors have done likewise that this is often overlooked. Due to the coronavirus there aren't the usual selling procedures like open houses (scheduled public viewings) or even the ordinary procession of buyers meeting sellers. Most people naively believe that housing prices are remaining relatively flat. As wealth has evaporated worldwide this must inevitably lead to significantly lower prices for real estate, and since downturns for real estate usually last for a few years or more the pullback will likely continue for at least three years. If you are able to sell then do so as soon as possible, while if you have been considering doing any buying then I would strongly recommend waiting at least until 2023 before taking action.

The timing of lower highs will be of major significance in the U.S. elections scheduled for November 3, 2020.

Nearly all bear markets are notable in the way in which they form lower highs. The Russell 2000, consisting of companies 1001 through 3000 by market capitalization out of all 3600 U.S.-listed companies, topped out on August 31, 2018, formed a key lower high on January 17, 2020, and recently plummeted so deeply that it was recently trading below its levels from the final months of 2013. This wasn't widely reported in the mainstream financial media but it is immediately obvious on a long-term chart. We have likely begun a powerful rebound for risk assets around the world which will have major implications for the U.S. Presidential, Senate, and House of Representatives elections scheduled in just over seven months. If the S&P 500 and similar U.S. equity indices are completing important lower highs with the S&P 500 near three thousand around Election Day then Donald J. Trump has a good chance of being re-elected while the Senate will likely remain with Republicans holding a majority. On the other hand, if the current rebound stalls around some other time like Labor Day (September 7, 2020) and thereafter falls sharply then we could experience a meaningful shift toward the Democrats. During the 2007-2009 bear market there was a major plunge which began near the opening bell on the day after Labor Day which made it far easier for Democrats to sweep that year; during the 2000-2002 bear market there was an important top also around Labor Day of 2000 followed by a moderate pullback which may have made it possible for George W. Bush to squeak by in a disputed contest.

The media often discuss how the results of the U.S. elections will impact the markets but it is probably even more significant to consider how the markets will impact the elections. If Democrats regain both the U.S. Presidency and the Senate, and retain control of the House of Representatives, then significant tax and other legislative changes will become nearly certain for 2021 which could persist for several years or more.

Insiders have been buying at their most aggressive pace since March 2009.

The ratio of insider buying to insider selling reached its highest ratios since February-March 2009 with the following article discussing this topic:

Executives Are Buying Stock in Droves

Top corporate executives aren't permitted to sell the shares they purchase until at least six months after the date of purchase or else they have to surrender their gains. This means that they have not been buying simply in anticipation of a brief sharp recovery but are looking for a more sustained rebound.

Insider buying has not been uniform across sectors. Especially-undervalued securities in energy and travel are among those which have experienced multi-decade peaks of insider accumulation during the past few weeks.

TLT has been forming lower highs since the pre-market session on March 9, 2020, while VIX revisited the mid-80s multiple times two weeks ago and completed a significantly lower high when most major U.S. equity indices slid near the opening bell on March 23, 2020.

TLT, a fund of long-dated U.S. Treasuries, topped out at 181.41 three weeks ago on March 9, 2020. You won't find this number on your charts unless you use data which includes trading outside of regular hours since this top had occurred in the pre-market session at 7:56:29 a.m. Eastern Time. Meanwhile, VIX peaked several trading days prior to the March 23, 2020 bottom for the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and many large-cap U.S. equity indices. This implies that the most-experienced investors who tend to purchase long-dated U.S. Treasuries and portfolio insurance became less eager to hedge at the same time that most ordinary investors were becoming increasingly nervous about their portfolios. This is analogous to the market's behavior in early 2009 prior to one of its strongest-ever ten-month uptrends from early March 2009 through early January 2010.

Summary: buying now will likely be profitable especially because we remain in a bear market for U.S. equities which began when the Russell 2000 topped out on August 31, 2018. Buying near the end of 2018 was highly profitable and buying in recent weeks will likely prove to be even more rewarding.

If you buy near an intermediate-term bottom during a bull market you will usually come out ahead. If you buy near an intermediate-term bottom during a bear market, especially when insiders are buying at their most intense pace in eleven years and in some sectors at all-time record levels, you will achieve greater annualized gains since bear markets tend to be far more volatile than bull markets in both directions. Those who bought in the final months of 2018 were well rewarded especially if they sold in late 2019 and early 2020. Similarly, those who have been buying the least-popular securities in recent weeks into the coronavirus panic and who keep buying into pullbacks will likely enjoy even greater annualized gains during some unknown period of months.

The bottom line: with all-time record investor outflows you know it must be worthwhile to be doing the opposite.

The most-experienced investors are doing their heaviest buying in eleven years while the least-experienced investors are doing their most panicked selling in eleven years. You don't need an advanced degree to figure out which side will come out ahead, and since we are in a long-term bear market the upcoming gains will likely occur surprisingly quickly. Whenever most people you know become excited about "getting back into the market" and insiders are unloading then it will be time to get out again.

Disclosure of current holdings:

From my largest to my smallest position I currently am long GDXJ (some new), the TIAA-CREF Traditional Annuity Fund, SIL, XES (some new), ELD (some new), FCG (some new), OIH (some new), PSCE (some new), bank CDs, money-market funds, GDX, I-Bonds, SCIF, MTDR (some new), URA (some new), PAK, EPOL, ECH, COPX (some new), REMX (some new), XOM (all new), PEO (all new), EZA (all new), GXG (all new), FXF, GREK (all new), EWW (all new), GNK (all new), EGLE (all new), IPI (all new), SBLK (all new), SALT (all new), FLNG (all new), EGPT (some new), GOEX, BGEIX, NGE, FXB, XOP (all new), CCL (some new), BA (all new), AA (some new), IDX (some new), EWM, RGLD, WPM, SAND, SILJ, KLXE (all new), and CHK. I am completely sold out of U.S. Treasuries, HDGE, SEA, SLX, ASHR, ASHS, TUR, FM, ARGT, RSXJ, LIT, EWU, EWG, EWI, EWD, EWQ, EWK, EWN, WOOD, EPHE, JOF, and AFK.

I have closed out all of my short positions which I will generally do whenever VIX reaches a multi-year peak. The only securities I would sell short now would be long-dated U.S. Treasuries and their funds including TLT. I would sell short actual houses if there were a way to do so. My cash and cash equivalents including bank CDs and stable-value funds (fixed principal, variable interest) comprise 17.7% of my total liquid net worth.

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" (George Santayana). "Those who can remember the past but insist that it's different this time deserve to repeat it" (Steven Jon Kaplan).

The two previous longest bull markets in U.S. history occurred as follows: 1) from August 1921 through September 1929 which was followed by a bear market of over 34 months from September 1929 through July 1932; and 2) from October 1990 through March 2000 which was followed by a bear market of 30-31 months in duration (exactly 31 for the Nasdaq). The longest-ever bull market which began for the S&P 500 on March 6, 2009 may have ended for that index on February 19, 2020. This historical evidence suggests that the current bear market for the S&P 500 could last for 30-36 months which implies a major bottom for U.S. equity indices somewhere near the end of 2022.

The heaviest insider buying since March 2009 combined with all-time record investor net selling and repeated pullbacks near the opening bell worldwide especially on Mondays is likely signaling a major uptrend for most global risk assets. Keep steadily buying the most undervalued stocks and bonds and don't sell again until VIX is back down to the mid-teens. Some commodity-related and emerging-market securities may have begun major uptrends with triple-digit percentage gains while some individual shares have already doubled from their recent deep nadirs.

“Humans are prone to herd because it is always warmer and safer in the middle of the herd. Indeed, our brains are wired to make us social animals. We feel the pain of social exclusion in the same parts of the brain where we feel real physical pain. So being a contrarian is a little bit like having your arm broken on a regular basis.” --James Montier

FEAR: STOP FEEDING, START FADING (March 8, 2020):

There are two ways investors can respond to the coronavirus panic. The first one is the overly obvious wrong one: pile into long-dated U.S. Treasuries; buy shares of companies like Clorox and drug-related corporations which will allegedly benefit from a vaccine or some kind of cure; massively sell energy and travel shares and anything else which would be negatively affected by virus fears. Taking these actions has been widely popular as you can immediately see as yields on the 10-, 20-, 30-, and related U.S. government securities have plummeted to their lowest levels ever recorded since U.S. debt was first available in 1791. Many of these yields are not only all-time records but are roughly half the previous lows while representing the greatest-ever negative real yields (i.e., after adjusting for inflation) in U.S. history. Meanwhile, already-undervalued shares in sectors like energy and travel have become even more illogically depressed.

Second-level thinking is essential to profit in the financial markets. If they act early enough, first-level investors may sometimes be ahead in the short run but almost always lose in the intermediate and long run.

If taking panic action like piling into U.S. Treasuries is obvious even to the average pre-K investor who has barely learned to recognize the letters in the symbol names then probably it is not going to be a successful approach. More importantly, successful investing is almost always not about recognizing the obvious but gauging the most extreme overreactions by others who have recognized the obvious as a thundering herd. If media headlines about a virus lead to less travel then perhaps travel shares should drop by a tiny amount but not by fifty, sixty, or seventy percent. Even in an unusually volatile year like 2008 actual energy supply and demand fluctuated by only a half percent as prices quadrupled and then plunged below their pre-quadrupling levels. After the 9/11 terrorist attacks analysts were confident that flying and other forms of travel would remain depressed indefinitely. It is the absurd extent of the most exaggerated overreactions which provides most worthwhile buying and selling opportunities. Just as we adjusted after 9/11 to the knowledge and responsibility regarding occasional terrorist attacks, one way or another society will adjust more rationally to the existence of coronavirus. People will want to travel as much as they had done before and otherwise live fully again while knowing what do do in case they exhibit certain symptoms characteristic of coronavirus. Doomsday scenarios of "never doing so-and-so again" have always proven to be false in past decades and centuries.

Full credit must be given to Howard Stanley Marks for popularizing the concept of second-level investing. Like myself he has also become a recent heavy buyer of the least-popular shares worldwide.

The incredible level of worldwide stimulus in response to coronavirus is the main financial story and one which has been woefully underemphasized.

The financial media are rife with speculation about how this or that asset will allegedly react to coronavirus. The fact is that the market has already reacted, overreacted, overreacted some more, and then ridiculously way overreacted again. What almost no one is emphasizing is how governments around the world have been cutting overnight lending rates, pouring record billions into their economies--at least one or two trillion overall eventually--and how this is occurring not during a severe recession but near the end of an eleven-year global economic expansion. The real dilemma is that the worldwide economy is likely to generate rising inflationary expectations rather than deflation or contraction. The end of any lengthy economic expansion will eventually be a worldwide recession, but coronavirus has invited massive stimulus which other than an initial brief negative GDP impact has likely postponed the arrival of such a recession by more than a year.

The media know they will get more viewership by hyping the coronavirus and making it seem personally imminent, rather than responsibly reporting on current advanced efforts to develop cures and how people should avoid irrational overreactions.

Energy shares are trading near two-decade lows with some of them near three- and four-decade bottoms.

The sector with by far the most insider buying for an extended period of time has been traditional oil and gas shares and companies which service and are connected with those producers. Profits are generally much higher now than they had been in past decades so their price-earnings ratios and other fundamentals have become amazing bargains even when compared with past recession nadirs. In 2008 we had irrationally undervalued energy followed by the highest overpricing in history followed by a second irrational undervaluation, all within a single calendar year. Investors who are currently overreacting to the downside will be wildly speculating and pushing prices of energy shares to multi-year highs perhaps two years from now. Exactly why the shares of energy companies are so volatile and tend to fluctuate roughly in two-year swings is unclear but what has been the case in the past will almost certainly continue into the future.

Worthwhile funds in this sector include FCG, OIH, XES, and PSCE. PSCE is especially unpopular since it consists of small-cap energy names, and small-caps worldwide are out of favor at the same time that energy companies are unpopular--thus providing you with an attractive double play.

As I am writing this Sunday night, March 8, 2020, West Texas intermediate crude oil just dipped briefly to 27.90 U.S. dollars per barrel which it had not touched since the early weeks of 2016. Regardless of what it does in the short run, this price will roughly triple within about two years.

Travel shares have become as irrationally oversold as they had been after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

Other than energy the heaviest insider buying during the past several trading days has been for companies which are connected directly or indirectly with travel. The assumption is that because of coronavirus--that excuse again--people will permanently travel less for business and pleasure than they have done in the past. Those who remember 9/11 remember similar forecasts; just two years later we had new all-time records for flights and vacations. This time it may not even take two years to rebound strongly because a partial cure might be found any day or warming weather could greatly reduce the virus' spread or a vaccine could be developed--or all of the above. Insiders don't have special knowledge but they recognize that when valuations have become their cheapest in decades it is usually worth gradually buying especially when so many investors are selling first and asking questions later if at all.

Cruise-line shares CCL, RCL, and NCLH have been especially out of favor in recent trading days and will likely all rebound significantly over the next several months.

Hardly anyone is considering the political impact of coronavirus as Democrats have a far greater chance of retaking the U.S. Presidency and the Senate while retaining control of the House of Representatives.

What does Donald J. Trump point to most often as the justification for having another four years in office? It is the way he has allegedly pushed the stock market higher. The problem with consistently taking credit for new all-time market highs is that you have to take equal blame for what may end up being one of the biggest-ever percentage declines from those highs in an election year. It's certainly not necessarily Trump's fault and if coronavirus is still around on Election Day then it may provide a convenient excuse for the decline. However, it is more likely that by November 3, 2020 coronavirus will have become a nagging background issue rather than continued headlines and that there will be several other reasons cited for weakness in U.S. equity markets. That will be especially true if we enjoy a multi-week rebound which I will expect will begin very soon time-wise.

Gold mining and silver mining shares have probably already completed key higher lows to point the way higher for commodity-related and emerging-market securities.

During the last bear-market bottoming cycle gold mining and silver mining shares mostly completed their respective nadirs at or near the opening bell on October 24, 2008. Most other commodity producers and leading sectors including semiconductors did so around November 20, 2008 while many other assets bottomed during the first quarter of 2009. It is likely that gold mining and silver mining shares were again among the earliest sectors to complete their coronavirus-inspired lows with GDXJ slumping to 35.25 on February 28, 2020 and making several higher lows thereafter. This has been followed by other commodity-related and emerging-market funds beginning to form additional higher lows with energy as usual being one of the last sectors in this category to rally strongly. Insiders continue to point the way by persistently buying into the lowest valuations with energy shares enjoying especially intense insider accumulation.

VIX keeps surging toward and occasionally above 50 but will not likely be able to remain above such levels for an extended period of time.

Fear is a powerful human emotion but it is not easily sustained. Whenever VIX is spiking as it has been doing lately it is warning that any stock-market downturn is likely to soon lead to an impressive intermediate-term rebound. I expect most global risk assets to enjoy uptrends which will be highly choppy but will generally last for at least several weeks until VIX is once again around 17, 16, 15, or perhaps even lower than that. If investors would learn to sell whenever VIX is forming key higher lows as it had done in February 2020, rather than when VIX is topping out as it is doing now, then they would enjoy far greater long-term success.

Buying on Monday morning has often been a successful strategy as weekend warriors upset by recent losses and above-average volatility finally surrender and place massive market sell orders which will be triggered at Monday's opening bell--an ideal time to add to your long positions.

The U.S. dollar index has quietly begun a two-year downtrend from a three-year top.

The U.S. dollar index rallied to 99.910 on February 20, 2020, its highest point in three years and not far below its zenith from the beginning of 2017, and has since formed numerous lower highs. The greenback will continue to choppily decline for perhaps two years and will eventually complete multi-year bottoms versus many global currencies. This process will encourage rising U.S. inflationary expectations which when combined with already-committed stimulus and foolishly-conceived interest-rate cuts will prove to be a potent reflating cocktail.

Summary: the biggest profits are made by taking the opposite side of the most extreme overreactions. We now have more such simultaneous extremes than probably at any time since the first several weeks of 2016.

When I wrote my last update in early February 2020 investors saw no urgency in selling and were eager to keep piling into the most popular technology shares when it was essential to aggressively reduce risk. Now when we have multi-decade lows for many sectors people are eager to sell rather than to capitalize upon numerous compelling buying opportunities. Most investors will keep buying high and selling low because they are subconsciously responding to media hype coaxing them not to miss out when prices are topping and to bail out from fear of further losses when prices are bottoming. In the long run the U.S. equity bear market which began with the Russell 2000's zenith on August 31, 2018 will continue for perhaps a few more years, but since so many are gloomy today we are going to enjoy a multi-week rebound. You will know when to start selling again whenever VIX has slid down into the mid-teens again and the media are telling you why you should get back into the market.

The bottom line: buy whatever the top corporate insiders are buying.

Most investors currently detest energy and travel shares while insiders have been eagerly buying them into weakness. You can guess which of those groups will again be on the right side of the market.

Disclosure of current holdings:

From my largest to my smallest position I currently am long GDXJ (some new from late February), 4-week U.S. Treasuries yielding 0.939%, the TIAA-CREF Traditional Annuity Fund, SIL, XES (some new), ELD (some new), FCG (some new), OIH (some new), PSCE (some new), bank CDs, money-market funds, GDX, I-Bonds, SCIF, MTDR (some new), URA (some new), PAK, EPOL, ECH, COPX (some new), REMX (some new), LIT (most sold), EZA (most sold), GXG (most sold), ASHS (most sold), ASHR (most sold), SEA (most sold), VNM (most sold), TUR (most sold), FXF, EGPT, GOEX, BGEIX, NGE, FXB, AA (some new), EWM, RGLD, WPM, SAND, SILJ, CCL (all new), SLX (most sold), FM (most sold), ARGT (most sold), EWW (most sold), RSXJ (most sold), GREK (most sold), and CHK. I am completely sold out of HDGE, EWU, EWG, EWI, EWD, EWQ, EWK, EWN, WOOD, EPHE, JOF, AFK, and IDX.

I have again reduced my short positions to a very small short position in XLI, a small short position in SMH, and a very small short position in CLOU. My cash and cash equivalents including bank CDs and stable-value funds (fixed principal, variable interest) comprise 25.5% of my total liquid net worth.

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" (George Santayana). "Those who can remember the past but insist that it's different this time deserve to repeat it" (Steven Jon Kaplan).

The two previous longest bull markets in U.S. history occurred as follows: 1) from August 1921 through September 1929 which was followed by a bear market of over 34 months from September 1929 through July 1932; and 2) from October 1990 through March 2000 which was followed by a bear market of 30-31 months in duration (exactly 31 for the Nasdaq). The current lengthy bull market which began for the S&P 500 on March 6, 2009 and which may have ended for that index on February 19, 2020 might therefore last for 30-36 months, implying a bottom around the second half of 2022.

Because there is so much gloom and doom today expect a multi-week rebound for stocks and corporate bonds worldwide over the next several weeks. Buy now and don't sell again until VIX is back down to the mid-teens.