“Macro worries are like sports talk radio. Everyone has a good opinion which probably means that none of them are good.” --Seth A. Klarman

SAFE HAVENS SHUNNED (June 21, 2022): Since January 4, 2022 large-cap growth funds like SPY finally joined the bear market which began in February 2021 when stocks in the U.S. and worldwide began shifting from uptrends to downtrends. It took several months longer for assets like the Nasdaq and QQQ to reach their respective peaks on November 22, 2021 at all-time record overvaluations roughly 3.75 times fair value. Whenever a popular fund like QQQ with its current fair value near 116 is trading at 408.71, as it had been at its peak on November 22, 2021, then it's like drinking an entire fifth of Scotch at one go. It might be a special single malt which has been lovingly aged for decades but you're still going to first get drunk and then suffer a severe hangover. Right now we're 5-1/2 months into that hangover which will likely persist until 2024 or 2025. I expect QQQ to ultimately bottom somewhere around 70, of course with numerous strong bounces along the way including one which is probably happening right now.

I have continued to progressively shift my equity short:long ratio toward the long side and have now become 5:4 short to long versus 2:1 in my previous update.

Especially during the past week we have experienced historic bargains for many individual shares and sectors including GDXJ, GDX, ASA, XBI, INTC, TKC, TLT, and VMBS, thereby encouraging me to add to all of the aforementioned. There is also an above-average likelihood of a quarter-end bounce which could persist into July; 9 of the past 10 quarters have behaved in that manner regardless of whether or not we were in a bear market, plus we are finally seeing some short-term bullish signals. Most likely QQQ will climb to perhaps 310 before continuing its downtrend to its 2022 intermediate-term bottom somewhere around 210. Most investors expect neither a strong rebound nor a continued severe downtrend, thereby making both much more likely than usual.

For those who have not read my numerous previous postings, this does not mean that I have closed out my large short positions in QQQ and related shares. Instead I have added aggressively to the long side in my favorite undervalued holdings with low price-earnings ratios, heavy insider buying, and intense outflows. I have no intention of closing out my shorts just because I think the chance of a short-term bounce are higher than usual. When VIX doubles from its current level it might be time to consider closing short positions. I had previously closed out all of my short positions and related short funds in March 2020, December 2018, and January 2016.

If VIX surges higher, but I don't believe that we are approaching a major intermediate-term bottom for QQQ, then I will likely sell covered out-of-the money puts against some of my short positions.

Gold mining and silver mining shares are especially compelling, not only because they have been trading at their lowest levels in more than two years but because they have consistently and dramatically outperformed during three previous bear markets for large-cap U.S. growth shares.

We had important peaks or lower highs for large-cap U.S. growth shares on January 4, 2022. Previous similar tops include March 2000, January 1973, and September 1929. In all of the above cases, large-cap U.S. growth shares ended up losing more than 80% from their respective zeniths, while gold mining shares after an initial delay ended up gaining hundreds of percent.

Let's look back at 2000-2003 since it is easiest to find free chart data compared with the 1970s or 1930s. HUI ($HUI on stockcharts.com) bottomed at 35.31 on November 15 and 16, 2000 and climbed to 258.60 by December 2, 2003. This is a total percentage gain of (258.60 - 35.31) / 35.31 or 632.37%. Perhaps we won't repeat that exact percentage surge but, especially as we had similar impressive rallies for gold/silver mining shares during the 1930s and 1970s, an outsized gain is more likely than not over the next several years. I prefer GDXJ to other funds in this sector since its mid-cap focus tends to outperform large-cap shares like GDX especially when fund managers no longer fear repeated net outflows and are confident enough to diversify into holdings other than the biggest and most liquid names.

Here are two useful charts.

We are at the point in a typical bear market where a rebound has become much more likely than usual. If this rebound becomes sufficiently extended so that VIX moves back below 20 then this will be my signal to add to my short positions, as has been the case during the past several months especially in late March when VIX dropped below 19. In general this is a useful guideline during all true bear markets including 2000-2003 and 2007-2009:

At the beginning of 2021 almost everyone in the media and elsewhere had been bearish toward the U.S. dollar. This has been replaced by a nearly opposite consensus about a powerful greenback:

Recently I have been buying shares of FXY (Japanese yen), FXF (Swiss franc), and FXB (British pound). This leads to the next topic which is how safe havens are currently incredibly unpopular.

Investors have been making net ouflows from safe havens of all kinds including U.S. Treasuries like TLT, the above-mentioned currencies, emerging-market government bond funds including TEI, LEMB, PCY, and ELD, as well as other government-guaranteed funds like VMBS.

Investors have become so accustomed to the failed Boglehead approach that they've actually been net sellers of gold/silver mining shares, government bonds of all countries including the United States, safe-haven currencies, and related assets like U.S. government-guaranteed mortgage-backed securities (VMBS). Most of this money has gone into buying still-very-overvalued large-cap growth shares and funds. This has created compelling opportunities for safe-haven sectors which in many cases have been trading near multi-year lows. Long-dated U.S. Treasuries haven't sported such high yields in more than eight years, including TLT which traded at 107.78 at 7:47 a.m. in the pre-market session on June 16, 2022. This marked the lowest point for TLT since April 3, 2014.

TEI is a compelling fund of emerging-market government bonds with a discount that is 50% above its long-term average.

TEI recently traded with a discount of more than 13% versus its long-term average near 8%. Emerging-market government bonds aren't well known to most investors and are usually ignored regardless of their valuations. This fund has been actively managed by the same lead advisor since 2006 and is well-diversified internationally.

Some aggressive underpriced assets have become worthwhile for purchase.

Companies including INTC, TKC, and GEO have recently been trading at unusually low price-earnings ratios relative to their profit growth. Some entire exchange-traded funds including XBI have also been periodically underpriced, with XBI also experiencing very heavy insider buying of many of its components including notable CEO purchases. KWEB had experienced a deep undervaluation earlier in 2022 but has now rebounded sufficiently so that I will continue to hold it but I will not add to my position unless it retreats to an important higher low later in the year.

Considering that we are in a severe bear market, VIX has been peculiarly low so far in 2022.

VIX has remained irrationally depressed throughout 2022, indicating that much greater losses lie ahead even if--or especially if--we have powerful upward bounces along the way which cause VIX to drop below 20. I am baffled by the failure of VIX so far in 2022 to reach 40, not to mention a much higher level like 60 or 70.

If you and I both had perfect advance knowledge at the beginning of 2022 regarding what QQQ and SPY would do during the first half of 2022 then I would have bet you a lot of money that I could forecast the behavior of VIX. And I would have been dead wrong. I have been puzzled that 1) VIX hasn't touched 40 so far in 2022; and 2) VIX has retreated below 20 several times in recent months. Both of these phenomena indicate that even professional investors are mostly unafraid or oblivious to the possibility of a significantly extended downtrend in 2022. It's not going to be different from every other bear market in history: eventually VIX will rally to double or more its current level and when that occurs it may become timely to finally close out some or all of our short positions.

Too many investors are comparing current valuations with their all-time peaks of 2021-2022 and drawing faulty conclusions.

I have met dozens of people who tell me something like this, "Look how much QQQ has dropped from its top. If it's down 30% then it has to be a great bargain." This is like announcing while you're descending from the peak of Mount Everest: "I've come down seven thousand feet so far, so I have to be very close to the bottom." If we look back at the highest-ever peaks for U.S. equities in their entire history then the beginning of 2022 is by far the all-time record, followed by March 2000, September 1929, and January 1973. (You could also count the railroad bubble of 1873 and the canal bubble of 1837 but let's skip those for now.) As of today's closing prices, large-cap growth shares overall were almost exactly matching their January 1973 tops and weren't far below their September 1929 zeniths which many people in the Great Depression believed would never be exceeded. In other words, what looks at first glance like a great discount compared with the top is still enormously above fair value and historic averages. If QQQ were to drop 75% more then it would be at the average level of a bear-market bottom at roughly 40% below fair value.

The bottom line: as the current bear market progresses in typical fashion with periodic sharp surges higher, there are opportunities to make money on both the long and the short side. Be persistent, gradual, and disciplined at all times and continually rebalance your portfolio to adjust to these fluctuations.

Disclosure of current holdings:

Here is my asset allocation in order from largest to smallest position: cash including I Bonds paying 9.62% guaranteed (available to anyone with a U.S. social security number); TIAA Traditional Annuity paying an average of about 3% (for legacy retirement accounts); long TLT (some new); short XLK; short QQQ; long GDXJ (many new); long GEO (some new); short TSLA; long GDX (many new); long KWEB; long EWZ; long ASA (many new); long INTC (many new); long TKC (many new); long XBI (some new); long TEI (all new); long EPOL (some new); long LEMB (all new); long TUR; short AAPL; long T; long ECH; short XLU; short XLE; long PCY (all new); long VZ; short IWF; short SMH; long WBD; long VMBS (all new); long FXF (all new); long FXY (all new); long FXB (all new); long UGP; long ITUB; long BBD; long TIMB.

“The real secret to investing is that there is no secret to investing.” --Seth A. Klarman

UP YOUR ASSET ALLOCATION (February 6, 2022): Surprisingly few people recognize how dramatically the financial landscape has changed during the past year. Exactly one year ago the vast majority of global assets were in bull markets. Today, more than 40% of all Nasdaq shares have dropped over 50% from their 52-week highs while most global stocks, high-yield corporate bonds, cryptocurrencies, NFTs, and perhaps even real estate have been in downtrends. Some oversized percentage pullbacks have created worthwhile bargains at various points in recent months.

I have shifted my equity short:long ratio dramatically toward the long side while remaining 2:1 short to long.

My current total as of the close on Friday, February 4, 2022 was long 20.636% and short 42.13%, or almost exactly 1:2, not counting TLT. If the bear market continues for large-cap U.S. growth shares as I expect then I will likely be more long than short before the end of 2022. I list the exact percentages at the bottom of this essay.

TLT has become very unpopular as investors don't trust a forty-year bull market.

One of my very first investments was purchasing long-dated U.S. Treasuries in 1981. At that time there was a nearly unanimous consensus that U.S. Treasury yields would keep climbing indefinitely due to permanently high inflation and soaring budget deficits. Each year, often more than twice per year even in the early 1980s, there was a proclamation that the bull market for the 30-year U.S. Treasury had ended, and we have continued to experience this gloom and doom each year since then including right now. On Friday, February 4, 2022, TLT dropped to 138.78 at 10:52:28 a.m. Eastern Time. I made my most frequent purchases of TLT on Friday since it had been even more depressed during the late winter and early spring of 2021. The longest-tenured writer at Barron's, Randall W. Forsyth, penned a bullish column about long-dated U.S. Treasuries which is the lead article in this week's print edition and can be found below:

Contrarians Indeed: Two Seers See Lower Rates, Bond Boom

The online version has the same essay but a different title: "Forget About Inflation. Contrarians Expect a Recession and a Drop in Bond Yields." It is probably not a coincidence that The Economist has the following cover story:

How High Will Interest Rates Go?

Many investors confuse the Fed's overnight lending rate with long-term yields.

If we are heading toward increasing recessionary expectations, as the flattening U.S. Treasury yield curve has been telling us, then this would mean higher short-term yields and probably lower long-term Treasury yields to create additional flattening. I plan to keep buying TLT into weakness because it could be one of the top performers as it has been in the past whenever investors have gone from almost zero expectation of a U.S. recession, like now, to a majority of investors expecting such an economic slowdown.

U.S. housing prices may have begun to drop following a more extreme bubble in 2021 than we had in 2005-2006.

The price of the median U.S. house dropped about 34% following the housing bubble we had sixteen years ago. Average valuations were even higher in 2021 by Case-Shiller and many other reliable measures, so the overall pullback is likely to be greater. The U.S. Fed's data for new home prices experienced its first pullback in a long time:

Numerous sectors had become especially compelling in recent weeks including GDXJ, KWEB, and XBI.

In addition to my very recent buying of TLT, I have been accumulating GDXJ, KWEB, and XBI into weakness. GDXJ is a fund of mid-cap gold mining shares; this sector had been one of the largest percentage winners following the collapse of previous U.S. growth-stock bubbles in 1929, 1972, and 2000. KWEB is a fund of Chinese internet companies which has one of the highest ratios of profit growth to price-earnings ratio for any U.S.-listed exchange traded fund. XBI is a fund of biotech shares which recently had more than a 1.5 to 1 ratio of profit growth to price-earnings, according to the sponsor's web site, and which had also featured significant insider buying of several of its components. XBI and GDXJ traded near two-year lows while KWEB had fallen to a five-year nadir. T (AT&T) is sharply out of favor partly over confusion about its upcoming spinoff and related uncertainties. I plan to continue to purchase all of the above into either lower lows or higher lows, especially whenever we are experiencing dramatic net outflows from these and related funds along with continued above-average insider buying relative to insider selling.

Too many investors are waiting for nonexistent triggers.

Extreme deviations from fair value in either direction are sufficient reason for dramatic price changes to occur. People often ask "what is going to trigger a huge drop for QQQ" or "what will cause Chinese internet shares to rebound?" I often answer these kinds of questions with this question: what caused U.S. internet companies to collapse after 1999-2000? What caused the crash of 1929? What caused stocks worldwide to surge in the late winter and early spring of 2009? The answer in all three cases is that, even with years or decades of hindsight, there were no obvious triggers to either of these major trends. Any irrationally huge deviation from fair value will always resolve itself sooner or later.

The bottom line: we have dangerous overvaluations for large-cap U.S. growth shares combined with compelling bargains for several other sectors. Now is a good time to combine long positions in unpopular assets and short positions in the trendiest shares.

Disclosure of current holdings (most recent purchases in red):

Here is my asset allocation with average opening prices adjusted for dividends/splits and newly-opened positions in boldface: 43.6% cash including I Bonds paying 7.12% guaranteed (available to anyone with a U.S. social security number), TIAA Traditional Annuity paying 2.758% to 3.519% (for legacy retirement accounts), and Discover Bank high-yield savings paying 0.50% (available for all U.S. residents with retirement and ordinary savings accounts); 18.0% short XLK (112.7737); 17.3% long TLT (147.86); 15.9% short QQQ (309.7504); 6.4% short TSLA (494.9721); 5.9% long GDXJ (39.68); 5.0% long GEO (7.52); 2.54% long GDX (28.98); 1.68% long KWEB (35.19); 1.32% long EWZ (27.33); 1.23% long TUR (17.17); 1.05% long ASA (19.49); 0.90% short AAPL (125.5481); 0.74% long XBI (86.14); 0.62% long ECH (22.98); 0.53% short IWF (223.0119); 0.40% short SMH (170.7813); 0.27% long T (23.33); 0.12% long UGP (2.565); 0.10% long ITUB (3.83); 0.052% long BBD (3.39); 0.014% long TIMB (9.99). It doesn't add up to 100% since short positions require less cash; there is no margin involved.

“The success of contrarian strategies requires you at times to go against gut reactions, the prevailing beliefs in the marketplace, and the experts you respect.” --David Dreman

DÉJÀ VU ALL OVER AGAIN (January 17, 2022): Most investors are either treating 2022 as though it will be an approximate repeat of 2021 or else they believe that the investing world is totally different than it has ever been in the past. Both of these expectations are seriously flawed. The financial markets will consistently behave similarly to whatever they have done in the past under nearly-matching conditions. Early 2022 has numerous parallels to early 2000, early 1973, and the late summer of 1929. In addition, the past year which was 2021 was surprisingly analogous to 1999-2000, 1972, and 1928-1929. Therefore, what will occur over the next few years can best be determined by examining the market's behavior during 2000-2003, 1972-1975, and 1929-1932. This is especially true since so few investors are doing likewise, thereby making it probable that you will come out far ahead by studying and applying these valuable parallels.

We have experienced an exaggerated large-cap U.S. growth bubble which will behave like all previous large-cap U.S. growth bubbles, only more so since we had achieved all-time record extremes and divergences.

Imagine that you go to see the classic movie Casablanca with a friend. You observe how your buddy responds emotionally to the scenes which you have seen over and over again and which you conclude he must be watching for the first time. After the movie is over you plan to discuss this with him, and then one of the ushers you have seen there for years says to your pal, "You must be a huge fan of this film. You've already viewed it several times during the past couple of weeks." Surprised, you turn to your friend and ask him, "Is that true? The way you reacted to the most powerful parts of the film convinced me that you had never watched it before." "Oh, sure, I've seen it over and over," he responds, "but I keep hoping that it will turn out differently."

Expecting the financial markets to turn out differently than they had done in 2000, 1972, and 1929 is a serious mistake, because we have such a close repeat of those years. Several weeks ago we had 1099 new 52-week lows for the Nasdaq in a familiar pattern where investors crowd into fewer and fewer of the biggest names near the end of a large-cap growth bubble. Boglehead investing is incredibly popular just as it had been in each of those years. Huge numbers of people who had never invested before are participating for the first time: bucket shops appearing worldwide on ordinary city and town blocks in 1928-1929; discount brokers emerging for the first time in the early 1970s; online brokerages having their debut around 1999-2000; and Robinhood/Reddit and other trendy zero-commission mobile-phone apps appealing to middle- and working-class investors in 2020-2022. There are numerous other parallels including the kinds of options trading, the times of the day/week/month/year when investors are most eagerly participating, huge net inflows into passive index funds, and all-time record overvaluations for the most popular shares. Here is one chart highlighting one of these exaggerated extremes:

The next few years will likely be similar to 1929-1932, 1972-1975, and 2000-2003.

People frequently ask me why I consistently accumulate the most-underpriced shares into extended weakness when I expect the biggest large-cap U.S. growth shares to drop over 80%. The reason is because, following growth-stock tops, value shares often end up with absolute gains especially when they are notably undervalued. Below is a chart highlighting how value shares had performed while QQQ was busy collapsing 83.6% from its March 10, 2000 intraday zenith to its October 10, 2002 intraday nadir:

The above chart highlights the useful point that a bubble for large-cap growth shares, especially the internet bubble of 1999-2000 and the Nifty Fifty bubble of 1972-1973, were followed by extended periods of outperformance by low-price-earnings assets especially in certain sectors such as gold mining. As great as the Great Depression had been, many gold mining shares gained hundreds of percent starting near the end of 1929.

There are numerous sectors today which will likely gain while large-cap growth shares keep making lower highs for two or three years.

Chinese internet shares have never been more undervalued relative to U.S. internet shares than they have in recent weeks by a large factor. Gold mining shares tend to perform especially well whenever large-cap growth shares begin powerful downtrends. Other currently-undervalued sectors include biotech, South American emerging markets, telecommunications, and recently Russian shares. Gradually purchasing these and other unpopular shares into extended weakness over the next few years is likely to be especially rewarding.

TLT and long-dated U.S. Treasuries have gone wildly out of favor in recent weeks.

Two essays were very recently posted by other analysts on Seeking Alpha which recommended selling TLT--after it has already been trading near a multi-month low. Commercials have been accumulating long positions in the 30- and especially the 10-year U.S. Treasury as you can see from maroon bars on the following charts:

10-Year U.S. Treasury

30-Year U.S. Treasury

We also had the greatest-ever two-week net outflow from TLT in its entire history. In a nearly exact inverse position from the spring of 2020, investors are minimally concerned about a recession and maximally worried about inflation. TLT will likely perform well until almost everyone is again far more concerned about a U.S. recession and continued losses for the Nasdaq 100, at which point it could become timely to sell TLT at a two-year high.

Think of your role as a jumbo-jet pilot, not an air-show sensationalist.

A jumbo-jet pilot's top responsibility is to ensure that the passengers remain calm throughout the flight, even if it means taking longer to reach the destination or even putting up with more turbulence than another approach. On a recent flight to San Francisco the pilot decided to break this rule and to make a sudden sharp dive to get us into calm air much more quickly. While he succeeded admirably in his objective and the remainder of the trip was surprisingly calm, quite a few people cried out or were otherwise upset by suddenly dropping thousands of feet. No doubt this would have been the correct maneuver as a military pilot with a squadron on board instead of ordinary passengers, but acting gradually has to take higher priority.

Even if I were to become absolutely convinced near a major bottoming pattern over the next few years that a particular drastic increase in portfolio risk is justified because VIX is at a multi-year peak, we have all-time record insider buying relative to selling, and we had the biggest weekly net outflow in decades, the next week could be even more extreme as we had experienced in March 2020. I have to discipline myself not to "pick up all those great bargains" too quickly.

Unfortunately I can't write a hundred-page essay for each posting, but you can subscribe to my twice-weekly email updates.

Several readers on Seeking Alpha usually say that I'm not giving enough detail to support my arguments. I would love to write a 100-page essay for each posting but unfortunately that's not practical. However, if you want to get additional precise details about what I am planning to buy and sell, at what prices, and in which quantities, you can subscribe to my newsletter at TrueContrarian.com. The subscription also includes two weekly Zoom meetings of 75 minutes apiece.

The bottom line: we have stealthily entered a meaningful rotation out of large-cap deflation-loving U.S. growth shares into small- and mid-cap inflation-loving global value shares. The ideal approach is to gradually purchase assets where their rate of profit growth exceed their price-earnings ratios by the widest ratios and where there is a history of outperformance by those shares under similar past circumstances. Too few investors are intelligently using 1929-1930, 1973, and 2000-2001 as a guide to 2022.

Disclosure of current holdings (most recent purchases in red):

Here is my asset allocation with average opening prices adjusted for dividends/splits and newly-opened positions in boldface: 44.1% cash including I Bonds paying 7.12% guaranteed, TIAA Traditional Annuity paying 3% to 5% (only available for legacy retirement accounts), and Discover Bank high-yield savings paying 0.40% (available for all U.S. residents with retirement and ordinary savings accounts); 18.7% short XLK (112.7737); 16.75% long TLT (148.259); 16.7% short QQQ (309.7504); 7.0% short TSLA (494.9721); 5.9% long GDXJ (39.96); 5.6% long GEO (7.65); 2.53% long GDX (28.97); 1.33% long TUR (17.17); 1.27% long KWEB (35.51); 1.22% long EWZ (27.33); 1.1% long ASA (19.43); 0.9% short AAPL (125.5481); 0.625% long ECH (22.98); 0.55% short IWF (223.0119); 0.45% short SMH (170.7813); 0.175% long T (23.17); 0.1% long UGP (2.565); 0.09% long ITUB (3.83); 0.044% long BBD (3.39); 0.013% long TIMB (9.99). It doesn't add up to 100% since short positions require less cash; there is no margin involved.

“Don't panic. The time to sell is before the crash, not after.” --John Templeton

CRACK CRUMBLE CRASH (May 17, 2021): There are all kinds of theories about why U.S. stocks reached all-time record overvaluations in 2021: the Fed, coronavirus, zero commissions, near-zero bank interest rates, and widespread popularity of trading. While these all have kernels of truth the real reason U.S. stocks are so overpriced is that investors poured more money into U.S. stocks during November 2020 through March 2021--just five months--than during the entire remainder of the bull market which had begun in March 2009:

Investors Have Put More Money into Stocks in the Last 5 Months Than the Previous 12 Years Combined

In addition to cleaning out their bank accounts and selling "boring" bonds so as to "not miss out" in the U.S. stock market, investors have borrowed all-time record amounts of money via margin loans as you can see from this chart of margin debt vs. GDP since 1959:

Downtrends have already begun for key leading sectors.

In any major bear market certain sectors tend to begin declines ahead of most other sectors. These tend to include small-caps (IWC), semiconductors (SMH), emerging market (EEM), and biotech (BBH). All of the above sectors had peaked weeks ago and have formed several lower highs since then. We also experienced the highest-ever ratios of insider selling to insider buying in U.S. dollar terms, a complete reversal from March 2020 when we had enjoyed the highest ratio of insider buying to insider selling since March 2009.

Notice the stark inversion from March 2020 to May 2021:

March 26, 2020: Executives Are Buying Stock in Droves, Giving a ‘Strong’ Signal That the Comeback Is for Real

May 14, 2021: Billionaires Are Selling Mega-Sized Stock Blocks After Surge

The following chart highlights how insider selling relative to insider buying has soared in recent months:

The media and analysts have shifted from expectations of essentially no inflation at the beginning of November 2020 to permanently-surging inflation by May 2021.

A half year ago the media, if they bothered to mention inflation at all, was about how it wouldn't be a problem for several years--if ever. In recent weeks inflation has been cited as one of the key factors in the global financial markets. It is almost certain that the media, along with most analysts and advisors, are just as wrong now as they were a half year ago but in the opposite direction. There is a long-term rising trend for inflation and interest rates worldwide which began in March 2020 but now that almost everyone is preparing themselves for higher inflation we are almost certain to move the opposite way for at least several months. Here is a refreshing contrarian viewpoint on this critical topic:

Greasing the Slide Toward Deflation

The insiders and commercials are clearly pointing the way forward while almost no one is paying attention to them.

Insiders of companies which would benefit from rising inflation, such as non-precious-metals commodity producers, industrials, and the shares of major global exporters, have experienced their highest insider selling in decades. At the same time we have all-time record traders' commitments in inflation-loving currencies such as the Canadian dollar in which commercials--who are the insiders for futures trading--have never been more aggressively net short:

Current Traders' Commitments, Canadian Dollar at Record 5-11-2021

It's a long way to Tipperary, not to mention the bottom for nearly all asset classes.

From its dividend-adjusted zenith of 104.99 on March 10, 2000 to its 17.22 bottom on October 10, 2002, QQQ plummeted 83.6%. With even greater net inflows by average investors and all-time record selling in 2021 by top corporate insiders it is likely that the current bear market for QQQ will end up experiencing similar or greater total percentage losses within three years or less. Hardly anyone is protecting themselves against such a possibility, which might even be the most probable scenario, by hedging, selling short, or even moving to a greater cash allocation. For the first time in history more puts were sold to open--that is, to make money betting on the stock market not declining much in percentage terms--than bought to open as a form of portfolio insurance. We have also experienced all-time record levels of small speculative call buying in 2021.

The total volume of short selling relative to market capitalization reached an all-time record low below 1.5% at the beginning of spring 2021:

The total percentage losses for unproven asset classes like cryptocurrencies and NFTs can't even be estimated, but the top-to-bottom declines for most of these will probably exceed 99%. Investors are far too easily swayed by well-known personages like Elon Musk rather than carefully considering the intrinsic merits of such speculations.

The bottom line: increasing negative divergences are pointing the way lower for U.S. equity indices in both the intermediate (3 to 6 months) and longer term (2 to 3 years) with periodic sharp upward spikes that are typical in all severe bear markets.

As the media have been maximally bullish and investors have smashed all previous net inflow records in their anticipation of higher asset valuations for U.S. stocks, corporate bonds, cryptocurrencies, real estate, collectibles, NFTs, and just about everything else, insiders and commercials and those with the most knowledge have never been more aggressive sellers. Do you think the world's wealthiest and most-experienced investors will be those who triumph over the next few years or the masses who have no idea what they are doing? There's a reason that the rich get richer and the poor remain poor. Otherwise we'd have mostly wealthy neighborhoods and a few scattered pockets of poverty rather than the other way around. It's not different this time.

Resist the temptation to become a rhinoceros, I mean a Boglehead, and remain heavily in cash.

It's time to hit an inside-the-park home run.

While you're patiently waiting for global assets to collapse you might enjoy watching a comedy I wrote in these euphoric times:

Inside-The-Park Home Run

Disclosure of current holdings:

Each time QQQ has been near or above 340 I have gradually increased my short position in that fund which had plummeted 83.6% from its January 10, 2000 top to its October 10, 2002 bottom including all reinvested dividends and will likely experience a similar top-to-bottom loss by 2024 or sooner.

Here is my asset allocation with average opening prices adjusted for all dividends: 57.0% cash including TIAA Traditional Annuity paying 3% to 5% (only available for legacy retirement accounts) and Discover Bank high-yield savings paying 0.40% (available for all U.S. residents with retirement and ordinary savings accounts); 18.4% short XLK (112.7737); 16.8% long TLT (148.59); 12.3% short QQQ (296.3402); 7.4% short TSLA (494.9721); 4.5% long GEO (7.898); 1.9% short ZM (293.16); 1.4% long GDXJ (44.6462); 0.9% short AAPL (125.5481); 0.6% short IWF (223.0119); 0.5% short SMH (170.7813). It doesn't add up to 100% since short positions require less cash; there is no margin involved.

“Investing should be like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.” --Paul Anthony Samuelson

INVESTING WHILE INTOXICATED (January 17, 2021): We have experienced all-time record levels of speculative call buying, penny-stock chasing, massive percentage increases for marginally-profitable companies, IPO eagerness, and numerous other multi-decade and even multi-century records which in many cases have surpassed rare bubble extremes from periods like 1928-1929, 1972-1973, and 1999-2000. Far too many investors have embraced the perceived certainty of ever-rising asset valuations, resurging inflation, a slumping U.S. dollar, endless summer for cryptocurrencies, record-low spreads for high-yield corporate bonds over U.S. Treasuries, the second real-estate bubble of the 21st century, and other myths as though they were certainties. The most remarkable feature today is how few people recognize it as being both phenomenally extreme and completely unsustainable. All similar bubbles in past centuries have ended with nearly identical collapses and this is not going to be the first-ever exception to that rule.

The large-cap Nasdaq collapses of 1973-1974 and 2000-2002 are likely to be repeated along with severe losses for many other fluctuating assets.

From its March 10, 2000 peak of 105.12 to its October 10, 2002 bottom of 17.24, adjusted properly to include all reinvested dividends as StockCharts.com does, QQQ plummeted 83.6%. I expect a similar percentage decline, plus or minus several percent, within three years or less. This will likely be accompanied by notable percentage losses for high-yield corporate bonds, real estate, cryptocurrencies, art, and nearly all fluctuating assets. It won't be a smooth path down and there will be many rebounds along the way. Robinhood investors and Bogleheads will both suffer severe losses for somewhat different reasons.

Bogleheads are overreliant upon the glory of past decades.

John Bogle himself decried the existence of those who took his excellent idea about index investing and badly distorted it. John Bogle sold all of his aggressive-growth shares in 2000 and also unloaded most of his stocks shortly before his passing in 2018 because he astutely recognized that there is sometimes far too much risk in the financial markets. It's too bad that most of today's Boglehead investors haven't considered that if you had been invested in the U.S. stock market near the end of August 1929 then by August 1982--which was 53 years later--your portfolio would have lost an average of about 60% after adjusting for inflation depending upon exactly what you owned. The only true periods of dramatic outperformance for the U.S. stock market, not counting the bubble behavior since March 2020, were the incredible eight-year rally from August 1921 through August 1929 and the more recent huge bull market from August 1982 through March 2000 with a few minor bear markets along the way. Even with its huge gain in recent years, if you are long a basket of Nasdaq stocks which you have owned continuously since the peak on March 10, 2000 then you are only marginally ahead after adjusting for inflation.

People are repeatedly underinvested whenever bull-market gains are about to be greatest and dangerously overinvested near the beginning of all major downtrends.

Nearly all long-term analyses of the financial markets underrate the rarity of the atypical outsized gains of the above two periods of 8 and 17-1/2 years. They usually have an agenda, open or hidden, of creating an illusion that "stocks always go up in the long run." Actual records by brokerages and mutual-fund companies illustrate clearly that most people prior to these two major outperforming periods had historically very low allocations to risk assets; in August 1982, for example, only 13.2% of total household wealth was invested in stocks versus roughly five times that amount by early 2000. So the vast majority of investors got little benefit from the two huge bull markets of the past century while there was massive participation on the downside in 1929-1932 and 1999-2003. With everyone nearly fully invested today we are set perfectly for a massive aggregate loss of wealth over the next few years.

Safe-haven assets have quietly completed important bottoming patterns.

VIX, a measure of implied volatility, has been steadily making dozens of higher lows since the final months of 2019. The U.S. dollar index, a little-followed signal which has accurately forecast nearly all major market turns of the past half century, probably completed its lowest point since the second week of April 2018 at 90.209 at 6:30 a.m. on January 6, 2021, having made numerous higher lows during the past 1-1/2 weeks. The U.S. dollar index topped out on March 4, 2009, exactly two days before the S&P 500 began a historic surge higher, and the U.S. dollar index also completed a key peak on March 20, 2020 just before the March 23, 2020 bottom for many U.S. equity indices. In July 2008 the U.S. dollar index completed a key double bottom just before the S&P 500 suffered one of its worst-ever percentage collapses. It is probably no coincidence that the January 6, 2021 bottom for the U.S. dollar index preceded by a half week the 319.99 after-hours top for QQQ registered at 5 p.m. on January 8, 2021.

The most-experienced investors are among the few who have embraced the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries.

The third of the "Three Musketeers" safe-haven trio, TLT and other long-dated U.S. Treasuries, likely completed important bottoms around noon on January 12, 2021. Top U.S. corporate executives have set new all-time records for the ratio of the total dollar amount of insider selling relative to insider buying in the U.S. stock market. These very-experienced investors have been increasingly accumulating the safest havens while they are still significantly undervalued. In every bull market the most-capable participants buy first, followed gradually down the food chain until the least-knowledgeable novices are piling in near the top. In a bear market the savviest investors get out earliest, followed all the way down the line until the least-experienced traders end up setting all-time records for net outflows near the bottom of the cycle.

Real estate worldwide is completing its second major bubble of the 21st century.

The 2005-2006 real-estate bubble featured subprime mortgages and liar loans. The 2020-2021 real-estate bubble is notable for record-low mortgage rates and the easy availability of credit and zero down payments. The most important similarity between 2005-2006 and 2020-2021 is that the ratio of U.S. housing prices to average household income in both cases surpassed twice their long-term level in many neighborhoods. Much of this data including the detailed Herengracht study which began in 1628 and Case-Shiller backdating to 1890 spans centuries (and even millennia, since real-estate prices have been recorded throughout written history). In 2005-2006 one heard frequently about how "foreign buyers" would enable real-estate prices to be perpetually elevated; by 2010-2012 many of these buyers had become sellers. Today you hear repeatedly about how people "from away" are eagerly buying but no one mentions how those with no long-term connection to a place are much less likely to hold on during periods of falling valuations. No asset which is more than double its fair value can sustain such a high price regardless of whether it's real estate, stocks, commodities, or anything else.

Intraday behavior highlights eager opening-bell buying which characterizes nearly all tops.

If you look at intraday charts of most risk assets in March 2020 then you will quickly discover that the least-experienced investors who were panicking out of the market nearly all did so near the opening bell, especially on Mondays when investors had been worrying all weekend about how much lower the market might retreat and had placed massive market orders to sell. Near bubble peaks in March 2000 and again in recent weeks we have repeatedly experienced the highest prices of the cycle near the opening bell when the least-experienced recent investors are most excited about how much money they're going to make. During the final months of 1999 and the early months of 2000 I heard many people openly predicting--in person and on the internet--how much money they would make in the stock market, with an infamous survey in February 2000 registering the average investors' expectations of 30% annualized gains in the stock market for the following decade. Recently similar absurd extrapolations have become commonplace.

Many of today's investors were in high school or younger during the 2007-2009 and earlier bear markets.

The huge surge of new investors in less than one year, just as in 1972-1973 and 1999-2000, have mostly never experienced a bear market. Many of them were in school when the last bear market occurred so it seems emotionally distant. Now they'll have a front-row seat to the carnage which will affect so many of them directly.

It's not just the newby investors who are convinced of invincibility but many long-time baby boomers who should know better.

If you look at the comments below and on my other essays on Seeking Alpha then you will quickly discover that those who are most optimistic about future risk-asset valuations are not just those who have never personally experienced bear markets. Many investors who lived through the huge collapses of 1999-2003 and 2007-2009, and who may have lost significant percentages of their net worth during those bear markets, have convinced themselves that "because of the Fed" or "since you have to put your money somewhere" or "with all of that cash still out there" or "since assets have to climb in the long run" that they're going to come out ahead even if they enter or hold their positions near their most-overvalued levels in history. All major market tops and bottoms must be accompanied by widespread delusions that a current unsustainable over- or undervalued extreme can persist indefinitely. The biggest percentage losses have always occurred whenever there was the highest level of overconfidence in future gains while the most dramatic percentage gains have happened in an atmosphere of maximum pessimism.

All post-bubble collapses have nearly identical chart patterns as Charles Mackay pointed out in "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" which he first published in 1841.

QQQ's pullback from its March 10, 2000 zenith of 105.12 to its May 24, 2000 intermediate-term intraday low of 63.03--with both numbers properly adjusted for dividends by StockCharts.com--was just about exactly 40%. QQQ reached 319.99 at 17:00:01 Eastern Time on January 8, 2021 which if we round off to 320 implies an upcoming bottom, perhaps in the second quarter of 2021, near or below 192. This is nowhere near what its ultimate bear-market nadir will be in 2022 or 2023 but is merely a projection for its first significant decline. Usually bear markets have their second-largest percentage losses near the beginning and their largest percentage declines near the end with lots of bounces and other unknowable fluctuations in between. Hardly anyone would likely agree with this price target with the vast majority of forecasters expecting continued QQQ gains in 2021 and beyond.

Participation in recent weeks has been concentrated in the least-reliable and most-dubious sectors of the financial markets.

The most-speculative sectors in the financial markets today have enjoyed by far the greatest increases in both participation and percentage gains, thereby encouraging many others to climb aboard these highly-uncertain assets. Penny stocks, cryptocurrencies, and out-of-the-money call options have become the darlings of recent months to an extent not even approached during past bubble peaks. Here is a chart of participation in penny stocks during the past decade:

The disappearing Trump mystique provides an emotional excuse for "huge" asset losses.

Most of the irrational increases for risk assets occurred since Donald J. Trump was declared the winner of the 2016 U.S. Presidential contest. Whether this is fundamentally meaningful or not, Trump is associated in many people's minds worldwide with wildly-overpriced assets. Now that Trump is out of favor, and soon to be out of office, this mystique has reversed. Many will subconsciously tell themselves that since Trump has gone there is nothing to prevent asset valuations from declining dramatically.

The most noteworthy aspect of the current asset bubble is how--as with every bubble peak in history--so many perceive it as being normal and sustainable when it is neither.

A few people in the media and on chat sites including Seeking Alpha have mentioned the rarities of the current situation and sometimes use the word "bubble" but most investors are convinced that nothing extraordinary is going on. A century from now, and perhaps two or three centuries from now, the current mania will be analyzed as to how it could have been created in the first place and why so many more people piled in near the top rather than prudently reducing risk. The 1929-1932 bear market might still remain as the premier historic collapse but 2021-2023 will provide some serious competition and will likely be much more closely scrutinized partly since data and analyses from the current century are far more numerous and pervasive than a bear market from a previous century of mostly mass print media. Most people have been investing while inebriated with the liquor of potentially unlimited gains, not realizing the severe hangover which is approaching.

When in doubt use the Martian test.

Suppose that you had just arrived on planet Earth from a trip to Mars where your internet connection had been broken. What looks absurd and what looks normal? If you are living through a period where the value of cryptocurrencies gradually climbs for months then you begin to accept it as being typical regardless of how high it gets. If you were thinking about selling on the way up but you didn't sell and the price climbs higher, you keep getting positive psychological feedback telling you how smart you were for waiting longer. Eventually you won't be able to sell at any price, no matter how high, since you've gotten so many pats on the back attesting to your brilliance in doing nothing. Many of the recently-minted rich from being fortunate enough to hold bubble assets have proudly declared that they're not selling a single share, thereby ensuring that they will end up poorer than when they began. I personally know several people who had suffered this fate in 1999-2003.

The bottom line: today's investors are like small animals blissfully eating by a pond, not recognizing that they are surrounded by hungry alligators.

One of the most important principles of investing is that if you are long anything and a massive concentration of inexperienced investors are joining your trade while insiders and commercials are heavily selling then you must get out regardless of what might happen in the long run. That is why I bailed out of GDXJ with an average price of 62.50 - 63.00 in the morning of July 27, 2020. Similarly, if you are short or in cash and investors are making all-time record net outflows while insiders are buying at their most intense pace in eleven years, as had occurred in March 2020, then you must buy aggressively even if you don't see any light at the end of the tunnel.

Disclosure of current holdings:

I have gradually increased my short positions in XLK, TSLA, and especially in QQQ while increasing my long position in GEO and more than quadrupling my now-substantial long position in TLT. I closed out all of my long positions in value shares; while I like many value sectors long-term I expect substantially lower prices sometime during the next half year.

Here is my asset allocation with average opening prices adjusted for all dividends: 65.7% cash including TIAA Traditional Annuity paying 3% to 5% (only available for legacy retirement accounts) and Discover Bank high-yield savings paying 0.50% (available for all U.S. residents); 18.5% short XLK (112.5968); 11.5% long TLT (154.68); 10.2% short QQQ (292.8835); 9.6% short TSLA (491.9117); 3.0% long GEO (8.76); 2.4% short ZM (293.16); 0.9% short AAPL (125.5481); 0.6% short IWF (223.0119); 0.5% short SMH (170.7813). It doesn't add up to 100% since short positions require less cash; there is no margin involved.

“If it's obvious, it's obviously wrong.” --Joe Granville

EPHEMERAL EXTREME ELECTION EUPHORIA (November 8, 2020): As a result of eager investor anticipation of a new U.S. political configuration the shares of risk assets have generally climbed during the past several trading days. This has made the least-experienced investors especially excited about getting "back into the market" and once again buying unusually intense quantities of speculative out-of-the-money call options. Insiders have been doing the exact opposite, dramatically accelerating their selling to tabulate some of the highest-ever ratios of selling to buying ever recorded for many popular large tech companies. When the most-experienced investors are doing nearly the exact opposite of the least-knowledgeable participants then you can be pretty certain who is going to be correct once again. In March 2020 we had the exact opposite where we had two consecutive weeks of all-time record net withdrawals from equity funds while insider buying relative to selling touched its most elevated ratio since March 2009.

Following both March 2009 and March 2011 we experienced powerful two-month rallies. Following all periods of similarly intense insider selling relative to buying as we have recently experienced, the most popular shares generally declined dramatically over a few months and are likely to do so again.

Several investments are currently especially compelling either to buy or to sell. Here they are with the most compelling one listed first on down the line:

1) QQQ, XLK, and similar funds of the most popular U.S. mega-cap technology companies have only been more overvalued in their entire history at the beginning of September 2020 when most of them achieved all-time zeniths and during the second week of October 2020 when they completed marginally lower highs. We have likely registered or will soon finish making additional lower highs for these shares. Even in historic years for popular growth stocks including 1928-1929, 1972-1973, and 1999-2000 we never had valuations as stretched as they are currently. We are likely on the verge of the next important correction which will rival the February-March pullback earlier this year and will probably exceed its declines in percentage terms for the majority of the most popular tech stocks. I have been adding to my short for QQQ each time it touches 295. If current overnight trends continue then QQQ could reach 296 or more in early trading on Monday, November 9, 2020 which would represent an ideal opportunity to add more of it on the short side. The resolution of U.S. Presidential election uncertainty is providing a wonderful selling opportunity for large-cap tech shares since no political alignment can trump [pun intended] all-time record overvaluations.

Probably the primary difference between the February-March 2020 correction and the current one is that this one is developing much more slowly. I believe it will also be harsher for the most popular big tech stocks.

2) TLT likely completed its next important higher low at 155.10 at 19:20:17 on November 3, 2020 when the earliest U.S. elections results were beginning to be counted. Since then TLT has been choppily rebounding. I have been buying TLT consistently below 159 and it dipped again below that mark on Friday, November 6, 2020. TLT is a fund of U.S. Treasuries averaging 26 years to maturity. Many investors avoid TLT because it seems to be closer to its long-term top than its long-term bottom but this is overlooking a bull market which has existed for this sector since September 1981 as well as a recent huge surge of fresh commercial buying of U.S. 30-year Treasury futures. Below is a chart highlighting the intensity of the commercial buying--notice the maroon bars growing in size on the right:

With the kind of extremes that we have in the above chart it is worthwhile to purchase TLT and other funds of long-dated U.S. Treasuries whenever TLT is below 160 with the idea of selling in early 2021 above 170.

3) The U.S. dollar is widely hated but is completing additional higher lows not far above its lowest levels since April 2018.

On September 1, 2020 the U.S. dollar index slid to 91.746 which marked its most depressed point since April 2018. The U.S. dollar index seems to be forming higher lows while most speculators are betting on a weaker greenback. What is likely to occur is that the U.S. dollar will rally to its highest point since the stock-market plunge of March 2020. There is no ideal way to directly invest in a rising U.S. dollar but owning U.S. Treasuries, U.S. time deposits including bank accounts, and U.S. money-market funds is a worthwhile conservative approach. Preservation of capital is far more important over the next few months than trying to achieve unsustainable gains.

The Russell 2000 is nowhere near its August 31, 2018 top and has been forming lower highs throughout 2020.

Since the first U.S. stocks were traded in 1790 (in Philadelphia two years before the New York Stock Exchange) it has consistently been the case that small- and mid-cap shares complete their respective cycle tops in advance of their large-cap counterparts, and whenever this occurs the subsequent losses for both are huge. The Russell 2000 has not only failed to surpass its August 31, 2018 top of 1742.0889 but it has also made several lower highs throughout 2020. We have also experienced a massive surge of new investors who were mostly still in school when the last bear market occurred and have little or no understanding of market history. Regardless of the fundamentals of any trade, whenever any position becomes dangerously overcrowded the market almost always moves in the opposite direction of that crowd.

Investors are confusing the near-term market behavior with how it will behave between now and early 2022.

Some investors believe that we will experience rising inflation, significantly higher interest rates especially on the long end, a resurgence for small- and mid-cap value shares, and generally rising commodities over the next 1 to 1-1/2 years. While this may be correct in the longer run it is almost certainly wrong in the short run since far too many investors have piled into these and related trades. The market will repeatedly punish stale long positions in the most popular shares. We will almost surely get significantly higher lows for VIX, TLT, and the U.S. dollar over the next few months combined with memorable losses of 30% or more for the most popular technology shares by the end of the 1st quarter of 2021 or sooner. Once most investors have given up on their positions we will then experience rising inflationary expectations and generally higher prices for commodity-related and other assets which prefer rising interest rates. The actual end of coronavirus, rather than its anticipation, will tend to accelerate this process.

The market's intraday behavior demonstrates repeated extremes outside of regular trading hours.

I have been trading much more frequently outside of regular hours in order to obtain the lowest prices for unpopular assets I am buying and to obtain the highest prices for the most overloved shares I am selling. I am much more frequently having orders filled with a combination of tiny partials instead of all at once. These two observations are related: the least-experienced traders who tend to buy near the top and to sell near the bottom only have enough money to trade a few shares at a time and are too busy at their 9-to-5 jobs to trade during regular hours.

Several undervalued sectors remain worthwhile for purchase but keep your total long positions smaller than your total short positions.

I am a big fan of those energy companies which have enjoyed the heaviest insider buying in recent months, along with other traditional value names sporting low price-earnings ratios, improving profit growth, increasing dividends, and repeated lows near the opening bell. MTDR, PSX, XOM, and GEO are examples of companies which fit into this category. Don't go overboard in accumulating these until VIX starts to form lower highs from a multi-month peak which will be a sign that the most-experienced options sellers are becoming less fearful of additional market losses. This will not likely occur until sometime this winter.

Boglehead investors in particular will keep underperforming due to not having sufficient cash to be a heavy buyer near each important intermediate-term bottom.

The growth of your entire portfolio in 2020 is primarily a function of how much money you had put into the market in March 2020--which is a function of how much cash you had raised in the weeks leading up to the February-March plunge. Those who were far too heavily invested in February 2020 didn't have nearly enough cash to do substantial buying the following month near multi-year lows and thus missed out on a prime opportunity to grow their total net worth. Similarly, those who haven't been opportunistically and aggressively selling near all important highs in recent months will not have nearly enough cash to be a major buyer whenever the next bottom is being formed perhaps in early 2021. This is one glaring deficiency of a Boglehead approach: it works okay in a smooth upward trend but fails miserably when it is essential to keep buying low and selling high on a frequent basis. Active asset reallocation in this kind of volatile market is far more important than exactly what you are buying, although you should favor securities which have rallied under similar past scenarios where small- and mid-cap value have begun to trounce previously-dominant large-cap growth including 1973-1976 and 2000-2003.

The bottom line: I am 5/8 in cash, 20% in long positions, and 31% in short positions [this actually adds up to 100% due to shorts being treated differently by the SEC].

I have increased my short positions in QQQ while gradually purchasing MTDR, PSX, XOM, and GEO each time those approach multi-month lows especially near the opening bell when the least-experienced investors tend to sell them in small quantities. I bought TLT especially as it fell as low as 155.10 in the after-hours session on November 3, 2020. I have been selling short QQQ at 295 and above as I have been doing since August 2020 and will continue to do.

Disclosure of current holdings:

From my largest to my smallest position I currently am long the TIAA-CREF Traditional Annuity Fund, bank CDs, money-market funds, Discover Bank Savings paying 0.55%, I-Bonds from 2001-2003, MTDR (some new), TLT (all new), PSX (some new), GEO (some new), XOM (some new), XES, BCBP, BOH, KRNY, OPBK, CDEV, WTI, SONA. I have 9.4% of my total liquid net worth in the previously-mentioned energy securities, 5.9% in the regional banks I listed, 2.7% in TLT, 2.3% in GEO, 0.1% in EWZ purchased below 27, and am otherwise completely sold out of everything else on the long side.

I have 17.5% of my total liquid net worth short XLK, 5.2% short TSLA, 4.1% short QQQ (some new), 2.3% short ZM, 0.8% short AAPL, and 0.4% short SMH. I plan to keep adding especially to my QQQ short into strength whenever QQQ is near 295 or above. My cash and cash equivalents including bank CDs, savings/money-market accounts, I-Bonds, stable-value funds (fixed principal, variable interest) comprise 63.0% of my total liquid net worth. (It seems to exceed 100% but for short positions only part of the total cash value is required to hold them.)

I am currently sporting my heaviest net short percentage since August 2008, even more than at the beginning of September 2020.

“The trick of successful investors is to sell when they want to, not when they have to.” --Seth Klarman

2020 RETREAT, 2021 REBOUND (August 23, 2020): The most difficult aspect of investing is appreciating the urgency to act when almost no one else wants to do so and to refrain from trading when almost everyone else is either excitedly chasing after recent extended strength or selling in a panic following recent dramatic losses. Now is one of those times when Robinhood investors are tripping over themselves to purchase the most overpriced mega-cap technology shares while most investors are congratulating themselves for not selling in March 2020. Far too many are oblivious to the huge dangers of remaining heavily invested at the most overvalued stock-market top in history surpassing the previous record extremes of 1928-1929, 1972-1973, and 1999-2000. Just during the past week the market has sent multiple simultaneous signals of imminent danger and yet investors are mostly partying like it's 1999. They'll end up suffering the same fate of those who didn't sell two decades ago when the Nasdaq plummeted 78.4% from 5132.52 on March 10, 2000 through 1108.49 on October 10, 2002.

Three key leading indicators completed major reversals during the past week.

Let's consider each of these three indicators in order of importance:

1) The U.S. dollar index likely completed a 27-month bottom of 92.127 at 10 a.m. Eastern Time on August 18, 2020 followed by a higher low of 92.154 at 9 p.m. the same day. Whenever the U.S. dollar begins to rebound from an important bottom it generally indicates that risk-off is likely to prevail for some unknown period of weeks. Given typical calendar behavior it is likely that risk assets worldwide, including most U.S. equity indices, will drop to complete important bottoming patterns during the final weeks of 2020 and perhaps at the beginning of 2021.

2) VIX may have completed a six-month bottom of 20.28 on August 11, 2020 followed by a higher low of 20.99 on August 19, 2020. When VIX completes an intermediate-term bottom during a bear market for U.S. equities, it often surges higher afterward as investors are mostly stunned by the stock market's sudden pullback. While VIX may not return to the mid-80s where it had been in March 2020 it is likely to regain 60 or 70 before the end of 2020.

3) SMH is a fund of semiconductor shares which may have peaked at 9:39 a.m. on Tuesday, August 18, 2020 with an all-time high price of 174.33. For more than a half century semiconductor shares have completed important tops and bottoms in advance of most other U.S. equity indices as a useful leading indicator. It could be different this time but probably it isn't. SMH will probably similarly let us know when the downtrend is coming to an end several months from now.

Breadth is deteriorating with fewer and fewer shares achieving new all-time zeniths.

The Russell 2000 Index, consisting of two thousand medium-sized U.S. corporations, topped out on August 31, 2018 and hasn't reached that level since then, with lower highs in January 2020, February 2020, and August 2020. Over the past two years we experienced two meaningful corrections for U.S. equity indices: during the autumn of 2018 when the S&P 500 dropped over 20% and in February-March 2000 when the S&P 500 slid just over 35%. Most likely we have already begun or will soon initiate a pullback roughly halfway between these declines or perhaps around 27.5%. The S&P 500 almost reached 3400 which it had barely failed to surpass in January-February 2020, this time falling short by just 46 cents. During the past week there were far fewer new 52-week highs than we had experienced during previous peaks for the S&P 500 in recent years. According to this week's Barron's there were only 220 new highs on the New York Stock Exchange, 284 on the Nasdaq, and 8 for NYSE American.

Insider selling relative to insider buying is near all-time highs going back several decades.

Top corporate U.S. executives have been aggressively selling, with among the highest ratios ever recorded for insider selling to insider buying in August 2020. In March 2020 we had the biggest ratio of insider buying to insider selling since March 2009 and the market rallied accordingly. Watch out below.

The market's intraday behavior demonstrates the greatest strength whenever Robinhood investors are busiest trading.

In recent weeks the greatest gains for U.S. stocks tend to occur near the opening bell on the first trading day of the week, usually a Monday, as market orders placed during the weekend all crowd in simultaneously. With most inexperienced traders being busy at their jobs during regular trading hours, many of them don't have time to trade until after the closing bell, thereby leading to funds like QQQ and XLK reaching their highest-ever levels between 6 and 7 p.m. Friday, August 21, 2020 rather than earlier in the day. Expect Robinhood traders to continue to dominate at the beginning of each trading week and sometimes in the after-hours sessions, thereby giving you additional ideal opportunities to sell and to sell short.

The worst losers of recent years are likely to rally strongly in 2021.

One reason for raising lots of cash now is that we are likely to experience compelling bargains for certain sectors near the end of 2020. Which sectors will those be? In recent years small- and mid-cap shares have hugely underperformed the most popular large-cap names. Value shares since June 1, 2007 have set a new all-time record level of sustained underperformance relative to growth shares. Deflation-loving companies have far outpaced assets which benefit from rising inflationary expectations.

In 2021 I expect these losers to exact their just revenge as small- and mid-cap value inflation-loving shares are among the top assets to rebound from their late-2020 bottoms. This would likely include some sectors like gold/silver mining which had been undervalued but had skyrocketed after their mid-March 2020 bottoms, only to become far too popular when gold surpassed two thousand U.S. dollars per troy ounce which attracted the eagerly-chasing Robinhood crowd. Once funds like GDXJ which had reached 65.95 eventually retreat below 40, gold mining and silver mining shares will be worth buying again as they will likely more than double within about one year.

Do not buy too soon. Wait for VIX to start forming lower highs following a multi-month peak and for other leading indicators to signal that the severe autumn stock-market correction of 2020 is almost over.

The bottom line: be mostly in cash and partly in short positions for the rest of the summer and for most of the autumn.

I have significantly increased my short positions as listed below while only doing a tiny bit of buying of GEO each time it approaches or goes below 10.50 per share, and I intend to continue to sell short into all rallies--even modest ones. Hardly anyone I know has been interested in betting against the market, either frustrated by repeated new all-time highs or convinced of foolish conspiracy theories such as the market not dropping substantially prior to the U.S. elections on November 3, 2020. Historically the U.S. stock market tends to be significantly weaker than usual in the months leading up to any Presidential election and this is easily verified by examining the past several years which were multiples of four.

Disclosure of current holdings:

From my largest to my smallest position I currently am long the TIAA-CREF Traditional Annuity Fund, bank CDs, money-market funds, Discover Bank Savings paying 0.80%, I-Bonds from 2001-2003, XES, MTDR, PSX, CDEV, WTI (all energy shares purchased in the second week of July 2020), GEO, BCBP, OPBK, SONA, KRNY (continuing to purchase GEO and regional banks into weakness). I have 5.0% of my total liquid net worth in the previously-mentioned energy securities, 4.2% in the regional banks I listed, 1.7% in GEO, and am otherwise completely sold out of everything else on the long side.

I have 16.7% of my total liquid net worth short XLK (half new), 4.4% short TSLA (some new), 1.7% short ZM (some new), 0.5% short QQQ (all new), and 0.4% short SMH (all new). I plan to keep adding especially to my XLK short into strength whenever XLK is near 117 or above. My cash and cash equivalents including bank CDs, savings/money-market accounts, I-Bonds, stable-value funds (fixed principal, variable interest) comprise 73.7% of my total liquid net worth. (It seems to exceed 100% but for short positions only part of the total cash value is required to hold them.)

I am currently sporting my heaviest net short percentage since August 2008.

“Buy on the sound of cannons; sell on the sound of trumpets.” --Nathan Rothschild, 1810

EUPHORIA TO PANIC TO EUPHORIA (June 9, 2020): Since the internet became popular in the 1990s we have experienced far more frequent and more exaggerated extremes in both directions for nearly all assets. During the past half year we have gone from U.S. equities being dangerously overpriced, to a fabulous buying opportunity for equities worldwide, back to an even more dangerous euphoria which exists today. Even hated energy and Brazilian shares have soared and have recently encouraged insider selling along with new massive fund inflows and all-time record call buying for numerous securities. It is as important to sell now as it had been at the most extreme stock-market peaks in history including August 1929, January 1973, March 2000, and October 2007. Actually 2007 wasn't even especially overvalued but I included it since the other dates may seem like ancient history especially to younger investors. It is urgent to sell soon while almost everyone else is congratulating themselves for being far too heavily invested.

As usual, VIX is sending a valuable signal which almost everyone is ignoring.

In mid-March 2020 VIX soared into the mid-80s and then began to form considerably lower highs. This signaled that the most experienced investors who often sell put options as portfolio insurance were getting less worried about the possibility of significant additional stock-market losses while most amateur investors were getting more worried as prices continued to drop into March 23, 2020. In March 2020 we had the biggest-ever weekly net outflow from equity funds in history, surpassing the previous record from February 2009, and then the record was broken the very next week near the end of March 2020. The most experienced investors were correct as we experienced one of the strongest short-term percentage rebounds in history. Now we have the opposite situation where amateurs are getting more optimistic while VIX is making higher lows instead of lower lows for several trading days, signaling that the most-experienced options traders are increasingly worried about a substantial selloff in upcoming weeks. I have no doubt that the professionals will be proven right yet again.

Investors have been piling into whatever has been rallying the most in percentage terms regardless of merit.

Even bankrupt companies have been enjoying astonishing price increases in recent trading days while sectors which had been abandoned as hopeless including Brazil and energy have enjoyed dramatic upward surges. Just as the strongest rallies are preceded by especially sharp extended losses, the most severe pullbacks are preceded by nearly vertical price increases. Investors have already seen major uptrends followed by sharp downtrends in September 2018 and March 2020, both of which had occurred after the Russell 2000 had completed its all-time top on August 31, 2018. The bear market for the Russell 2000 has existed for nearly two years and will soon intensify regardless of what happens with coronavirus, geopolitics, or any other meaningless triggers or phony cause-and-effect relationships. Whenever assets are dangerously overpriced they are far more vulnerable to above-average percentage losses.

Mega-cap technology shares have never been more overpriced overall even if you compare them to periods like March 2000.

Stocks like AAPL and MSFT have never been more overvalued relative to their likely future profits than they are now. The same applies to a few dozen other overpriced names which are almost all involved directly or indirectly with technology and modern finance. As is often the case during a lengthy bear market, investors are very reluctant to give up on their blockhead Boglehead dreams about making money "in the long run." Those who buy near major tops have always come out far behind even if they are patient enough to hold forever; those who bought or held Nasdaq shares prior to their March 10, 2000 intraday peak of 5132.52 are currently barely ahead after adjusting for inflation after more than two decades and that is with the Nasdaq recently registering a new all-time top. Investors who owned stocks in August 1929 had lost more than half of their money after adjusting for inflation by August 1982 which was 53 years later, and that is counting all reinvested dividends.

Sometimes bulls make money and sometimes bears make money but hogs get slaughtered.

Bulls made plenty of money from Christmas 2018 through January-February 2020. Bears did beautifully during the final weeks of winter. Afterward bulls have done wonderfully. Those who are just sitting around doing nothing and congratulating themselves for being geniuses are about to lose more than half their money for the third time in the 21st century which has only existed for a little over twenty years. In a bull market you can be more patient while buying and holding, but in a bear market such an approach will wipe you out. Sometimes you absolutely must sell and now is absolutely one of those times.

Real estate will likely lose one-third of its value worldwide as it had done in 2006-2011.

One reason the previous recession was so severe was that as people perceived their houses being worth less they cut back on their spending and sold stocks. This is known as the negative wealth effect and it will likely be a major factor in 2020-2023. Only a few analysts are concerned about how lower prices for stocks, houses, bonds, and many other assets will encourage people to become more frugal.

Sometimes you have to adjust your expectations to adjust to reality.

When I was aggressively buying in March 2020, and in some cases through mid-May 2020, I expected to hold most of those shares for perhaps one year and at least into early 2021. However, they have experienced such outsized gains which in many cases exceeded my most optimistic one-year forecasts that it is essential to get out now while it is still possible to achieve high prices. The speculative fever and mood in June 2020 is at least as great as it had been in August 1929, January 1973, and March 2000, and far exceeds that of any time in 2007.

A false belief in the omnipotence of the Fed will be especially crushing when this illusion is shattered.

At every major market top in history there is an overconfidence that nothing bad can happen because of one reason or another. Today there is a widespread false belief that the U.S. Federal Reserve will print unlimited money or purchase unlimited quantities of securities and that this action will enable prices to keep climbing indefinitely. As the bear market continues and intensifies and investors progressively realize that this was a false premise then they will become even more disillusioned than they would have been if there had been no Fed intervention. This loss of faith will be a contributing factor to one of the biggest-ever percentage drops for U.S. equity indices in their entire history.

Summary: even if you live a long life, selling now will likely be one of the key wealth-building events of your lifetime. You must sell high and prepare to buy low again.

Far too many investors believe that they have already experienced the bear market of the decade when it has barely gotten underway. Absurdly overpopular mega-cap technology shares will likely drop by 70% or more over the next few years or less. Sell now when everyone wants to party on.

The bottom line: investors are more dangerously overconfident now than they were in early 2020.

While insiders are doing some of their most intense selling ever recorded for many sectors, we have set new all-time records for call buying relative to put buying along with numerous all-time extremes in short-term percentage gains for thousands of securities along with other rare extremes of positive sentiment. We have gone from euphoria in early 2020 to panic in March 2020 to euphoria in June 2020. The next stop is despondency as the market probably surrenders over half of its post-March 23, 2020 gains for many assets.

Disclosure of current holdings:

From my largest to my smallest position I currently am long GDXJ, the TIAA-CREF Traditional Annuity Fund, SIL, bank CDs, money-market funds, GDX, I-Bonds, GOEX, BGEIX, RGLD, WPM, SAND, and SILJ. I am completely sold out of Brazilian shares, energy shares, shipping, other emerging markets, and numerous other equity funds which I had been aggressively accumulating in March through mid-May 2020.

In March I had closed out all of my short positions; now I have closed nearly all of my long positions except for those related to precious metals while selling short especially XLK along with modest short positions in TSLA and ZM. These short positions combined total 8.8% of my total liquid net worth and I plan to keep adding to them into strength. Downside risk for U.S. equity indices is probably greater now than it has been at any time since early 2000. I would also sell short actual houses if there were a way to do so. My cash and cash equivalents including bank CDs and stable-value funds (fixed principal, variable interest) comprise 61.1% of my total liquid net worth, my highest percentage total since January 2018 when I had previously been a heavy seller.

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" (George Santayana). "Those who can remember the past but insist that it's different this time deserve to repeat it" (Steven Jon Kaplan).

The two previous longest bull markets in U.S. history occurred as follows: 1) from August 1921 through September 1929 which was followed by a bear market of over 34 months from September 1929 through July 1932; and 2) from October 1990 through March 2000 which was followed by a bear market of 30-31 months in duration (exactly 31 for the Nasdaq). The longest-ever bull market which began for the S&P 500 on March 6, 2009 and which may have ended for that index on February 19, 2020 might therefore last for 30-36 months which implies a major bottom somewhere near the end of 2022. The bear market for the Russell 2000 and many other small- and mid-cap U.S. shares began on or around August 31, 2018 and has therefore been intact for nearly two years with several key lower highs along the way.

Investors have amazingly become more aggressive buyers of stocks, junk bonds, and call options in June 2020 than they were in January-February 2020 which had set most of the previous all-time records. The thundering herd is always maximally optimistic near a critical top, just as they had been maximally pessimistic less than three months ago. Look out below.